Kalshi sued over ouster of Iran leader prediction market
Kalshi is being sued for $54 million after invoking a 'death carveout' to avoid payouts on bets regarding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's removal from office.Summary
Kalshi, a prediction market, is facing a class action lawsuit for failing to pay out approximately US$54 million to users who correctly predicted the removal of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before March 1, 2026. Khamenei was reportedly killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes. The lawsuit alleges that Kalshi invoked a “death carveout” provision after the event to avoid fulfilling its obligations to customers, despite the fact that the possibility of death was a widely anticipated outcome given the geopolitical context and Khamenei’s age. Plaintiffs argue the language of the contract was “clear, unambiguous and binary,” and Kalshi’s actions were “deceptive” and “predatory.” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the carveout, stating it “keeps the rules simple” and announced a reimbursement of all fees from the market. Prediction markets, which gained prominence after accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. election, allow users to bet on real-world events with fluctuating contract costs and payouts upon confirmed outcomes.
(Source：CP24 Toronto)